Petrol Price Surge in Nigeria: Dangote Refinery’s Fifth March Adjustment Pushes Pump Price to N1,332 Per Litre!

Reported by Mustapha Omolabake Omowumi (Journalist) | Sele Media Africa

Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector is facing renewed volatility following yet another upward adjustment in petrol pricing by the Dangote Refinery, marking the fifth increase within March alone. The latest revision has driven the projected pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) to as high as N1,332 per litre, intensifying pressure on households, businesses, and the broader national economy.

This rapid succession of price hikes underscores the fragile equilibrium within Nigeria’s deregulated fuel market, where global crude oil benchmarks, foreign exchange fluctuations, and supply chain dynamics converge to determine domestic fuel costs. Industry analysts note that the refinery’s pricing decisions are closely tied to international crude prices and the naira’s continued depreciation against major currencies, both of which have amplified import parity pricing even for locally refined petroleum products.

The Dangote Refinery, widely regarded as Africa’s largest single-train refinery, was expected to stabilize Nigeria’s fuel supply and reduce dependence on imports. However, recent developments suggest that domestic refining alone may not insulate the market from global economic pressures. Instead, the refinery’s pricing model appears aligned with prevailing international market realities, reflecting a liberalized framework rather than a subsidized regime.

Market data indicates that depot prices have steadily climbed throughout March, triggering corresponding increases at filling stations across major cities including Lagos, Abuja, and Port Harcourt. Independent marketers have cited rising landing costs and distribution expenses as contributing factors, further compounding the burden on end-users.

For millions of Nigerians already grappling with high inflation and rising living costs, the latest price hike presents significant socioeconomic challenges. Transport fares have begun to rise in tandem, while small and medium-sized enterprises many of which rely heavily on petrol-powered generators due to unreliable electricity face escalating operational expenses. Economists warn that the ripple effects could exacerbate inflationary trends, reduce consumer purchasing power, and slow economic recovery.

Energy policy experts argue that while deregulation is designed to foster competition and efficiency, the absence of robust market buffers exposes consumers to frequent price shocks. Calls have intensified for targeted government interventions, such as strategic reserves, improved foreign exchange liquidity, and enhanced regulatory oversight to mitigate volatility without reversing market reforms.

Meanwhile, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has maintained a cautious stance, allowing market forces to dictate pricing while focusing on supply stability. The interplay between the state oil company and private refiners like Dangote remains a critical factor in shaping the sector’s trajectory.

Across Africa, Nigeria’s fuel pricing dynamics are being closely watched as a test case for energy transition policies in emerging markets. The continent’s largest economy has long struggled with fuel subsidy regimes, and the current phase of deregulation while fiscally necessary continues to test public tolerance and economic resilience.

Reputable media organizations including Reuters, Bloomberg, The Guardian Nigeria, and Punch Newspapers have reported on the ongoing petrol price adjustments, highlighting the broader implications for Nigeria’s energy security and macroeconomic stability.

As the situation evolves, stakeholders across the value chain from policymakers to consumers are bracing for further fluctuations, with many hoping for a stabilization of both global oil markets and domestic currency conditions in the weeks ahead.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, The Guardian Nigeria, Punch Newspapers

Mustapha Labake Omowumi

Mustapha Labake Omowumi is a journalist from Ibadan, Oyo State, and a graduate of the Nigeria Certificate in Education (NCE) in Economics and Mathematics. He demonstrates a strong commitment to professional journalism, with a keen interest in writing and storytelling, guided by principles of self-discipline, accuracy, and trustworthiness.

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