Headline:Nasir El-Rufai’s Shifting Alliances: Power, Politics and the Debate Over Principle in Nigeria’s Democratic Journey
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Reported by Afilawos Magana Sur, investigative Journalist at Sele Media Africa.
The political trajectory of Nasir El-Rufai has once again sparked national debate, as analysts and citizens alike examine his evolving relationships with successive Nigerian leaders from 1999 to 2026. At the heart of the conversation lies a recurring question: are his political realignments rooted in ideology and national interest, or shaped primarily by strategic ambition? As Nigeria’s democracy matures, El-Rufai’s history offers a compelling case study of power, influence, and political recalibration within the country’s elite circles. From Cabinet Insider to Critic: The Obasanjo YearsEl-Rufai rose to national prominence under the administration of Olusegun Obasanjo, serving as Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) between 2003 and 2007. During that period, he was regarded as one of the most influential reformist voices in the cabinet. However, after the end of Obasanjo’s tenure, relations reportedly deteriorated. Political observers have long speculated that disagreements over succession politics contributed to the fallout, though both men have offered differing accounts over the years. Their once-close alliance ultimately gave way to open criticism, marking one of the earliest visible shifts in El-Rufai’s political positioning. Opposition during the Yar’Adua Administration when Umaru Musa Yar’Adua assumed office in 2007, El-Rufai emerged as a vocal critic of the administration. At the time, he was also contending with legal and political challenges, which he described as politically motivated. His opposition continued until Yar’Adua’s death in 2010. Subsequent commentary and media analysis, including reports by Daily Nigerian, revisited his public remarks and political posture during that era, further fueling debate about his motivations and strategic positioning. From public support to Political Rivalry: The Jonathan EraIn May 2010, El-Rufai publicly pledged support for then-Acting President Goodluck Jonathan following Yar’Adua’s passing. However, political dynamics soon shifted. Jonathan ultimately selected Namadi Sambo as Vice President for the 2011 election cycle. Thereafter, El-Rufai became a prominent opposition voice, aligning with emerging political forces that later coalesced into the All Progressives Congress (APC). His criticisms of the Jonathan administration were widely covered by major outlets including Premium Times and The Guardian. The Buhari alliance and aftermath despite earlier remarks questioning the political viability of Muhammadu Buhari, El-Rufai became one of his strongest allies during the 2015 election campaign. Both men secured electoral victories that year — Buhari as President and El-Rufai as Governor of Kaduna State. Throughout Buhari’s two terms, El-Rufai was widely regarded as an influential northern political figure within the APC. However, toward the end of Buhari’s tenure, internal party tensions and national policy debates surfaced. Tinubu, Ministerial Nomination, and Renewed CriticismAhead of the 2023 general election, El-Rufai positioned himself as a vocal supporter of Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Following Tinubu’s victory, El-Rufai was nominated for a ministerial role but was later excluded from the final cabinet list after Senate screening processes referenced security-related concerns. Since then, his public commentary has grown increasingly critical of the current administration. Political analysts argue that this pattern — alliance during alignment of interests and criticism when sidelined — reflects broader dynamics within Nigeria’s power structure rather than an isolated phenomenon. The Dadiyata controversy and Ganduje allegations on 13 February 2026, El-Rufai appeared on Arise TV’s Prime Time programme in Abuja, where he raised allegations against Abdullahi Umar Ganduje concerning the unresolved disappearance of Abubakar Idris, popularly known as Dadiyata.Dadiyata vanished in 2019 while El-Rufai was governor of Kaduna State. His disappearance remains unsolved, and no official confirmation of his fate has been issued. The case has drawn sustained attention from civil society groups and international human rights organizations. El-Rufai’s recent remarks have revived questions surrounding accountability, inter-state political tensions, and the broader issue of enforced disappearances in Nigeria. Analysts note that while allegations and counter-allegations persist, definitive evidence and judicial conclusions remain absent. A Pattern or Political Pragmatism?El-Rufai’s journey through Nigeria’s Fourth Republic reflects a broader pattern within Nigerian politics: fluid alliances, strategic recalibrations, and intense power negotiations at the highest levels. Supporters describe him as bold, intellectually assertive, and unafraid to challenge authority. Critics argue that his political transitions often coincide with shifts in personal influence and access to power. What remains undeniable is that Nasir El-Rufai continues to shape public discourse, particularly in Northern Nigeria, where his voice carries significant political weight. As Nigeria confronts governance challenges, economic reforms, and national security concerns in 2026, the debate over principle versus ambition in elite politics remains central to the country’s democratic evolution. Sources Premium Times, The Guardian, BBC News Daily, Nigerian Arise News.
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